Thursday, November 15, 2012

Risk and Preparation

The past few weeks I have thought much about the economics of risk. It may have been spurred by the fact that we are studying it in Price Theory right now. I think what really triggered these thoughts was an idea proposed by a student in the econ lab this week. His argument was something along these lines:
Is college really worth it? Of the top 10% of the richest people in america, most never graduated from college or high school. I'm only here because my wife wants me to be. I don't need to be here to be successful. By staying here, I'll probably end up working for one of those top 10%'s.
I don't know if those stats are true, and his whole argument hinges on money being the only incentive to get a college degree. Personally, I disagree. The facts are clear. A college degree gives me greater probability of a better-paying job. I am happier avoiding risk when possible. Economists would say that a degree has a greater "expected utility" or that on average the happiness of those with college degrees are happier financially. [For the nerds reading this, I have to point out that I am assuming that people are risk averse meaning they don't like risk]

While college and high school dropouts may have better chances at earning serious cash, they also risk a lot more. They pretty much can have one extreme or the other. They may end up mopping floors the rest of their lives, or they may be the one hiring the college graduates.

The restored gospel teaches all to be self sufficient and ready for emergencies. We avoid risk when possible. We are advised to keep food storage, avoid debt, and live worthily. Each of these acts as a form of insurance against the storms of life. Why are we advised to do so? Because we are more likely to succeed under most circumstances

“We encourage you wherever you may live in the world to prepare for adversity by looking to the condition of your finances. We urge you to be modest in your expenditures; discipline yourselves in your purchases to avoid debt. … If you have paid your debts and have a financial reserve, even though it be small, you and your family will feel more secure and enjoy greater peace in your hearts” (lds.org/topics/finances?lang=eng).



“He has lovingly commanded us to ‘prepare every needful thing’ (see D&C 109:8) so that, should adversity come, we may care for ourselves and our neighbors and support bishops as they care for others... We ask that you be wise as you store food and water and build your savings. Do not go to extremes" (lds.org/topics/food-storage?lang=eng).




Even worthy living can be seen as a safer "investment" than careless living. Should loss occur, we are prepared. This is the principle behind Expected Value and Expected Utility.

6 comments:

  1. The best thing about a college degree is I use it daily in most decisions I make. My mind is something I can take with me anywhere.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I agree that the benefits of a college degree have advantages other than money, but for the topic's sake, I only touched on the side which involves risk (in this case, less risk).

    ReplyDelete
  3. What precludes someone with a college degree from taking financial risks that could secure a spot with the 10%? Seems you could have cake AND eat it?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Very true, but this was the faulty argument of the student, and it set up so well for a discussion about risk.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Risk: Oil and drug companies will tell one they have high risk in order to get a proper ROI. In business, one, maybe, should remember that "Pigs get fat; but hogs get slaughter". Now a diver gets extra points if his/her dive has more risk. Now does our Lord give extra points to those who have more risk in their lives than others who don't? Example cancer or none.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is true. Higher risk does yield higher rewards. However, on average it's rewards are lower. While humans praise those who succeed under high risk, the Lord does not measure discipleship based upon the risk one takes. Rather it is upon the measure of obedience. To each is measured differently. We cannot say that because one sacrifices more and risks more their actions are more accepted of the Lord. The faithful know that following our Savior's example is not a risk at all, but a promise of blessings to be fulfilled.

      Delete